It is Time to Rise Up! Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street TAKE NOTE!

November 1, 2011 Leave a comment

If Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party actually wanted to do something productive besides waste time and tax payers dollars, then they would tackle a real issue!  STOP all contributions to political campaigns!!!!!!!  Take money out of politics, this is our ONLY hope for fixing our problems.  Every new and existing candidate would be hated and voted out of office if they actually did what was right for this country.  We need to cut spending, change the tax code, revamp health care (no obamacare does NOT count), and raise the retirement age.  Sorry if you don’t agree, it’s probably because you are soley relying on one of the above.  Obviously we would create a grandfather for say those greater than 50 already, but for the rest, the game changes.  The link below is where we all need to be focusing our time, as this is the root to our problems, and until we fix this, hope is fading……..

But enough of my thoughts, listen to this rant by Dylan Ratigan, it’s about 4 minutes long, but EVERYONE needs to watch.  Please pass along and share with all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCRnkamitVk

A MUST SEE Interview with Ray Dalio on Charlie Rose

October 25, 2011 Leave a comment

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates is one of the greatest investment minds this world has ever seen.  His outside the box thinking and his Austrian views, have allowed him to grow his hedge fund into a $125 Billion machine.

This interview talks about the problems with the world and offers some clues on how to fix it, along with how he thinks, which is truly fascinating!  Enjoy.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11957

(Alleged) Ponzi Scheme – Too Close to Home

April 16, 2011 7 comments

On Thursday April 14, the Indianapolis Business Journal (IBJ) reported that the assets for Keenan Hauke, a Fishers money manager and owner of Samex Capital, were to be frozen immediately.  His first preliminary court appearance will be on April 25, and they will decide how to proceed from their.  His former trader Scott Noble, now opening up his own firm called Ternion Trading Group, resigned and immediately called authorities to report a “serious” matter.  The following line particularly stuck out in the IBJ article as hilarious:

A complaint filed by the state against Hauke, Samex Capital Partners LLC and Samex Capital Advisors LLC said Hauke “misled investors by failing to inform them that the funds they were investing would be converted to his personal use.”

I am not sure the above comment from the article even needs any further discussion.  Obviously it is highly illegal to use client assets to live a more luxurious life for yourself, but once again greed rules.

I write about this because it is in my backyard and I actually met with Keenan in his office to discuss his business and mine, and to see if their was any overlap we could team up on.  I never talked to Keenan after I left his office in the early summer of 2010 and hence never teamed up with him.  He told me that he had been running a hedge fund since 2000 and had no down years and in fact crushed it in 2008.  He was a pure technical analyst day trader.  He told me the firm had roughly $65 million in assets, but the hedge fund only made up about $10 million.  The other assets supposedly came from the corporate 401k accounts from around the Indy area, where he used  a San Francisco based platform provider to day trade the individuals accounts in the 401k plans, and some individual client accounts he traded in, outside the hedge fund.

Anytime someone says they have been managing money for an extended period of time and has never had a down year, I begin to question things.  Not that it can’t be done – because I know many legit hedge funds that have actually accomplished this – but it is not an easy feat, to say the least.  His office near 106th and I-69 sits just off a very busy interstate on the top floor where the executives of a failed mortgage company used to reside (no pun intended).  The individual offices were huge, with large windows in every office.  It seemed drastic and very expensive for the amount of money he was actually managing.  Don’t get me wrong $65 million is quite a bit, but I could already tell his spending habits were large.  Then I am driving down the highway one day several months ago and I see a giant Samex Capital sign at the top of the building, facing the highway.  Now I never once suspected that he was running a Ponzi scheme, and he is technically innocent until proven guilty, however, when your trader quits and claims serious fraud against your investors, I found it hard to believe it is not true.  My question the whole time has been: if you are really as good as you say you are, why aren’t you managing billions of dollars?  He had something like 4 advisors in his office trying to drum up new business, but no down years for 10 years and making money in 2008.  This fact should have had clients knocking down his door to invest with him.

In a more recent event, DrunkNomad, my partner on the site was offered a contract position with Samex Capital to help get a new website up and running, along with trying to get Samex into Social Media outlets.  We had many phone discussions on whether or not we thought it would be a good opportunity.  Keenan kept saying that he would teach DrunkNomad how to day trade and hopefully incorporate him into the firm after the contract expired.  I had an eerie feeling the whole time and just thought something didn’t add up.  Keenan was spending like he had unlimited capital, yet couldn’t grow the firm, even with unbelievable returns.  DrunkNomad declined the contract, and has not spoken to Keenan since.

Keenan Hauke contributed on a regular basis to the IBJ writing articles on money management, was on CNBC, Fox Business, and featured in Barrons and Bloomberg Magazine, according to his brand new website.  Attention to all individual investors that give one ounce of credibility to anyone on TV or writer of an article: these guys are not automatically credible because they are on TV.  In fact I would argue the best money managers never waste their time with these garbage programs and articles because they are too busy managing your money!  It takes quite a bit of time and research to truly understand how to make money in the markets, and I can tell you that some of these so-called “investment gurus” spend hours in order to speak for 10 minutes on some news program.  Every once in a while you will get a credible commentator or article writer on the boob-tube, but the majority actually pay large sums of money to be on these programs.  Please understand this by no means makes them capable of managing assets.  This recent outright fraud gives further proof of being on TV does not make you credible.

Why does this concern me?  While I am very happy they busted this clown, I am very displeased that it was so close to home and will give prospective investors yet one more example of distrust.  Already every prospect asks, “How are you different from Bernie Madoff?”  Now they are going to ask: “How are you different from Keenan Hauke?”  While it is a seemingly easy answer, most investors still don’t understand.  To all investors reading this that have money with a money manager, please make sure the assets are NEVER held out of your name.  Meaning, make sure that the account always stays in your possession, in your name, and in your control.  If you want a money manager to make trades and manage your assets, simply set up an account at a discount online broker, and only give the money manager the power of attorney to trade in your account.  Therefore only allowing you to withdraw and deposit funds into your account.  If you decide to invest with a hedge fund which requires a Limited Partnership agreement, then do your due diligence.  If you would like a rundown on how to do proper due-diligence then email me and I would be happy to discuss.  And to clarify, a money manager is someone that actually makes trades and manages your assets, not Edward Jones, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Northwestern Mutual, or anyone that calls themselves a financial planner, advisor, etc etc; these clowns are simply marketing and sales men who take your assets, collect a fee and throw you into mutual funds with large fees, or trade stocks only based on their firms’ buy-sell list.  The majority have absolutely no clue on what is going on in the economy, stock markets or geopolitical risks in the world.  I am adamant that your money manager should not be your financial planner or your insurance agent.  These jobs and products should be completely separated, but enough on this topic for the current post.

Just for fun I thought I would post a picture of his business card.  Notice it says the first Indiana Hedge Fund, it should say the first indicted Indiana Hedge Fund Manager!  Also now that this clown is (most likely going) to jail, or at least booted from the investment industry, I am claiming all rights to his slogan because I love it!  No Bear. No Bull. No Limits. (No ethics?)  Except I won’t steal client assets, promise.

Side note: how does being a competitive swimmer have anything to do with money management or running a hedge fund?  Maybe his slogan should have been “Helping Your Money Take a Dive.”

Video: The Impact of Algorithmic Trading

April 10, 2011 Leave a comment

Barry Ritholtz over at the big picture recently posted a link to a great video from a subset of the TED Talks called TEDx.  The TEDx events are individually organized, and focused on bringing “TED-like” experiences without the famous name (or the $6000 annual membership fee).  Yan Ohayan, an insider to the High-Frequency-Trading (HFT) game, describes the industry environment and dutifully outlines a practice called “quote-stuffing” that is prevalent in HFT algorithms – though relatively unknown to the public at large.  Check out video here:

Some highlights from the video:

  • Approximately 73% of trading volume today is done through computer algorithms, or 3 out of every 4 trades.
  • The average holding period of a trade today is 22 seconds.
  • “Speed gives [computers] an advantage no human can compete with.”
  • 8 minutes = 480,000,000 microseconds, computer can trade in 400 microseconds, divide, carry the one… that means in 8 minutes, a computer could place about 1.2 million trades.  And that is in a single stock.
  • “The speed of light and fiber optics are slowing us down.”
  • From the above point, the prevalence of co-location – getting as close to the exchanges as possible – has developed in an attempt to reduce data travel-time to as little as possible.
  • “Quote-stuffing” is essentially flooding the market with data in an attempt to overload competing computers, and filtering out that data from your own computers (you know what data it is, because you are creating it).
  • The Flash Crash is clearly evidence of the prevalence of HFT in the market.
  • Watson is a great example of man vs. machine: man knows the right answer almost as often as the computer, but the computer can simply hit the button fast than the limits of human reflexes allow us to.

I think it’s a great video on the importance and significance of the little computer critters running through all your favorite stocks.  Ever seen a 30-second price spike that returns to exactly the same price after the run-up?  Probably your friendly neighborhood HFT algo, just taking your precious pennystock for a drive around the block and making a bit of greenback along the way.  I wonder how proponents (well, creators) of those HFT trading algos really feel about their fleecing of the financial markets… I can concede the argument that Darwinism is the underpinning of capitalism, that the strong survive and the weak perish, and that competitive advantage is whatever gets you to the top.  The problems lies in the fact that treating the markets – and ultimately the companies and flesh-and-blood investors that comprise the markets – in this way removes the essence and purpose from the vehicle that got us this far: to price companies based upon their inherent value.  The capitalistic argument brings to mind the “Take-a-Penny” scene from the movie Office Space, and ultimately falls on its face when the whole system moves to HFT in an effort to stay competitive, bubbles occur on a daily basis, volatility goes through the roof, and the markets eventually fail because no one is willing (or able) to put money into a fraudulent game of follow-the-computer-code.

The New York Times has a short piece on quote-stuffing, defining it as a “Stock market technique whereby large trades are placed before being promptly cancelled.” (Also, note the link at the bottom of the article about “flash orders” and “black pools”, other interesting quandaries in high-speed finance…)

Interestingly, one might wonder why Mr. Ohayon would turn up in front of a giant crowd of people and state publically that he is engaging in HFT and quote-stuffing (which is, apparently, being “looked into” by the SEC, which could really mean anything but probably means nothing).   The blog BusinessInsider.com wondered the same thing, and wrote a post about it, to which Ohayon replied with a followup interview stating that he was against the practice of quote-stuffing, and that they should be regulated ASAP.  He also notes, though, that the markets “may be entering a point of no return…”  Not good news, especially coming from an insider.

 

Copper Chinese Foundations

March 30, 2011 Leave a comment

A recent article on the Financial Times Alphaville highlights a growing concern for the copper market: Chinese land developers are using copper to finance development deals, but the copper market in China may be drying up.

Here’s how it works:

  1. Interest rates in China are rising steadily, causing borrowing issues for land developers in China.
  2. Just like any other business, the land developers look for ways to cut costs.  In this case, that means finding other ways to finance and fund their projects.
  3. Copper has been on a tear lately; the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Total Return ETN (JJC) has moved from lows below $18 at the end of 2008/beginning of 2009 to over $60 in the beginning of 2011.
  4. Instead of taking out loans at the Bank of China, land developers are buying copper in bulk in the hopes that its value will rise enough to cover development costs.
  5. More than just buying in bulk, the developers are using deferred-payment plans which offset the initial cost of the bulk copper.

The problems begin to arise when there is a surplus of copper in the Chinese market, as the article notes.  Copper warehouses are getting so full that some supply is being stored outside the warehouses (nevermind that copper corrodes).

This creates an interesting relationship between copper prices and the profitability of land developers: a significant rise in copper significantly affects both the bottom-line and future growth prospects for developers than choose to speculate and finance through the “economically-intelligent” metal.

Check out this graph of China Housing and Land Development, Inc. (CHLN) versus the JJC over the past months (note the change in correlation  beginning in 2011):

The article also points out the discrepancy developing between the Chinese and European commodity markets.  Normally, materials seek higher prices regardless of location, yet recently prices for copper in China have dropped and copper is still flowing their direction.  If markets are at all efficient (worth debating some other time), then prices may be kept at bay through the arbitrage in this market.

Im a believer in “the other yellow metal”, and considering the fact that less and less of this stuff is being pulled from the ground each year, combined with the increasing demand from emerging countries for housing needs, to me means that copper – in the long term – is going nowhere but up.  However, if the Chinese government tries to stem alternative funding sources, the copper market (at least in China) may be in for a significant setback.

Also see commentary from Trader Mark over at FundMyMutualFund.com, who always has great analysis and thoughts on the markets.

Weekly Review 03/26/2011

March 26, 2011 Leave a comment

The past week was marked by over night rallies in the S&P 500 and major events shrugged off.  From last Thursday through Monday, the market finished the day higher, but actually closed below the day’s open on all three days (as shown below from Trader Mark at www.fundmymutualfund.com).  Also another major area I was watching on the S&P 500, was the 50 day moving average and/or the 1300 level, which were pretty close, was finally pierced on this past Thursday.  The down trend was broke (according to the chart below) on Monday, but I wanted to see both the trend broken and a rally above 1300/50 dma before I dared dip my toe back in the water.  We could see choppy markets from here in terms of staying in a sideways trading range, but I am simply going to trade what I see.  There is no sense in thinking you are right or investing with any sort of emotion or feelings, as the only thing that will lead to is frustration and losses.  I trade with my rules, in order to live another day.  The markets risk/reward is not considered cheap at this point, and thus why the fund still has a majority in cash.  Opportunities are out there, but there are becoming fewer that can pass any sort of rigid fundamental process.  A majority of stocks on my watch list broke down as the market produced a 7.4% pullback, and a few have now broken trend with the market, which is a major technical factor I look for, as they can produce powerful short-term moves.  The problem I  cam across was the move they made all in one day, most up 3-5% and not wanting to chase, I stood by.  So the market is near term bullish as the down trend has been broken, 1300 and the 50 day moving average have been pierced, and the put/call ratio remains near a ratio of 1.o.  The fund may get a little longer this week, depending on what the market gives us, but remember April 1 is near, which means the majority of the time the market will be higher, but you need to be in by the end of close on March 31.  This strategy has worked for years and many studies have shown it to be profitable, mainly due to new money being invested into the mutual funds and 401k’s as they must invest the money immediately.

As I mentioned in the most recent post on New Positions Added, Fundamentals are deteriorating, and companies seem to be spending some of their cash on the sidelines, as measured by the shrinkage in free cash flow.  FCF Yields are significantly coming down, signaling a lower margin of safety available and/or the expectations of a recovering economy.  I think we are in a recoverless recovering economy, with a severe shift in both structural unemployment and structural shifts in businesses.  I am currently building a short list of businesses that will be at a disadvantage due to structural reasons going forward in the economy.  Timing is definitely uncertain and no one truly knows, but some of the smarter minds I read in the business think it could be sometime after mid 2012, but before the end of 2013.

There are definitely still some major concerns about the world economy, but as of now investors seem to be shaking off any potential bad news and pushing the markets higher.  European Debt Crisis part deux took place this week as Portugal receives a bailout package, and up next Spain, who is twice the combined problem all the failed European economies are COMBINED.  I am not sure the market will be able to shrug off such a major country failure, like they have with the smaller ones already bailed out.  The end of QE2 is widely known and thus I am speculating that it has been priced into the market, but the unknown piece is whether the market is pricing in a QE3 to begin directly after, or if a break will be in between.  I believe the Fed fully anticipates further easing, relative to tightening.  While I would argue for the future generation of my kids and their kids, we stop QE immediately, but the Fed and Government have come too far in their bailouts now to let us go into a severe Depression.  They will raise the debt ceilings and continue their bailouts, whether they announce them or secretly do it behind our backs.  Either way we are all in a giant ponzi scheme, that will only end in tears, but until then.  Trade away and forget your feelings and emotions, the market could care less what you think!

Intra-day charts for the S&P 500 for Thursday through Monday, showing the gap up created overnight, with the markets finishing lower from open each day:

Chart of the daily S&P 500:

New Positions Added

March 26, 2011 1 comment

The market seems to have shifted to at least short-term bullish, so I decided to put a little cash to work on some names I believe will perform nicely for the longer term picture.

On Thursday afternoon, we picked up 100 shares of Cavium Networks Inc (CAVM) at $40.91. They are a hardware semiconductor company specializing in Cloud Computing.  A small cap company relatively unknown, relative to the software names like CRM, FFIV, etc.  They have several big clients including Alcatel, Aruba, Citrix, F5, IBM, Juniper, Motorola, Nokia, and Qualcomm.  For more information on why Cloud Computing is definitely a place to be due to the world moving to a cloud storage system and the use of 3G/4G smartphones, see the Techinsdr piece here: “Important Trends in Tech- Cloud Computing.”

In terms of the fundamentals of CAVM, they are very strong for the most part.  The one concern I have is their relatively low Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield of 1.3%, however I can overlook that due to the fact that they are ramping their business up in order to take advantage of the coming trend in cloud computing.  While many have heard about cloud computing, the industry is still in its infancy.  If free cash is used strategically by management, then longer term this will bode well for the company.  There has also been an entire market shift in spending their FCF.  Company after company I have looked at all seem to have shrinking FCF as they spend now, hoping for a brighter future later.  Maybe this shows that Company Executives are more bullish about the outlooks for the economy or maybe they are just tired of earning Zero percent in a money market.  In terms of fundamentals though, the first thing I looked at blew me away: a ratio I came up with – that isn’t anything complicated but allows a very conservative ratio that only a few companies can live up to – is Total Current Assets divided by Total Liabilities (TCA/TL).  CAVM boasts a 2.8!  Most companies cannot even get a ratio greater than 1, but their lean business model helps them achieve this mark.   CAVM concentrates on their core competencies and does not run their own factories; they simply design the CPU chips and then outsource the rest.  They post a Current Ratio of 3.6, financial leverage of 1.2 and an ROE of 19%, not to mention their profitability ratios year over year for Quarter 4, 2010 blow last years numbers away!  Next 5 years growth estimates for Earnings are expected to be 19.8% and expected Sales growth of 48%.  They have record revenue, net income, and cash flows from operations.  All this tells me that I am investing with a margin of safety.

On a purely technical standpoint as shown by the chart below, I am bullish on CAVM.  It recently broke its downtrend after the entire Technology sector suffered a minor pullback, but has regained an upward trend.  While we didn’t catch it off the break in downtrend (where I would prefer to have bought), I believe their fundamentals allow for enough of a margin of safety for longer term play here.  The downtrend was also broke while stochastics were in near term oversold with solid volume on the initial break.

CAVM chart: (as of 3/25/2011)

Yesterday I picked up 90 shares of Pall Corp (PLL) at $56.17.  PLL is one of the few stocks that held its uptrend even through this pullback, as you can see from the chart below.  I am buying near the bottom of the trend and a slight close above my resistance line.  PLL is a leading supplier of filtration, separation and purification technologies, principally made by the Company using its engineering capability and fluid management expertise, proprietary filter media, and other fluid clarification and separations equipment for the removal of solid, liquid and gaseous contaminants from a wide variety of liquids and gases.  It operates in two industries: Life Science and Industrials.  They have a fairly wide variety of sub segments generating revenue, which offers both a diversification of their business and a diversification to the portfolio.  Next 5 years earnings growth estimates are expected to be 12%, along with a PEG of 1.7, solid y/y earnings growth estimates, along with rising consensus estimates for the next few quarters.  They have an ROE of 21%, Debt/Equity of 0.6, Financial Leverage of 2.5, and a Current Ratio of 2.7.  Their TCA/TL is not quite as strong as CAVM, but still comes in at a solid 1.0, still offering a margin of safety, even as PLL hits all time highs.  Record cash flow from operations and free cash flow, with a FCF Yield of 3.7%.  FCF is not as strong as I would like, but I am discounting because of the cap-ex spending all companies are experiencing.  I am bullish on the story and their ability be in a strategic position to benefit from the structural shift in the economy we are experiencing.

On a technical perspective, PLL held up strong even in the recent market pullback, never breaking trend, but still hitting all time highs.  While I don’t normally like to buy stocks hitting all time highs, I believe their strong growth and story can continue to push them higher.  We are buying near the bottom of their uptrend and solidly above all their moving averages.

Disclosure:  Hold both CAVM and PLL in personal portfolio and in Nomad Portfolio

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